Unemployment about 100k worse than estimated at 9.8%

Top Day Rec

10.02.09

Unemployment comes in at 9.8% with a job loss of -263K, about 100K worse than estimated. Disappointing to say the least. Weak personal income growth. Also, there was an upward revision in job loss for the previous month. Household survey was also unfortunately worse than expected. We’ll still have 3.5% to 4.0% GDP growth but that’s due to government stimulus. Private sector is still missing.

Sep 29	09:00	Case-Shiller Housing Price Index	Jul	-14.50%	-14.20%	-15.44%
Sep 29	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Sep	59.5	57.0	54.1
Sep 30	08:15	ADP Employment	Sep	-250K	-200K	-298K
Sep 30	08:30	GDP - Final	Q2	-1.2%	-1.2%	-1.0%
Sep 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Sep	53.5	52.0	50.0
Sep 30	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/25	NA	NA	2.85M
Oct 01	08:30	Personal Income	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Oct 01	08:30	Personal Spending	Aug	1.2%	1.1%	0.2%
Oct 01	08:30	Initial Claims	09/26	540K	535K	530K
Oct 01	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/19	6100K	6178K	6138K
Oct 01	10:00	Construction Spending	Aug	-0.4%	-0.2%	-0.2%
Oct 01	10:00	ISM Index	Sep	55.7	54.0	52.9
Oct 01	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Aug	1.0%	1.0%	3.2%
Oct 01	14:00	Auto Sales	Sep	NA	NA	NA
Oct 01	14:00	Truck Sales	Sep	NA	NA	NA
Oct 02	08:30	Average Workweek	Sep	33.1	33.1	33.1
Oct 02	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Sep	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
Oct 02	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Sep	-225K	-180K	-216K
Oct 02	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Sep	9.9%	9.8%	9.7%
Oct 02	10:00	Factory Orders	Aug	-1.7%	0.5%	1.3%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.37

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 96.67

Dec EC: pos with support at 144.77

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 91.15

Dec BP: neg with res at 160.06

Dec ES: neg with res at 1047.00

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1710

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9624

Dec Gold: pos with support at 991.70

Dec Silver: neg with res at 16.70

Dec Copper: neg with res at 280

Nov Crude: support at 68.20

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.28

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.56

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 118.16

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.70

Dec Dax: neg with res at 5682

Dec NKD neg with res at 9998

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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