Dollar weakens after G-20 meeting, unemployment came in at 9.8% worse than expected

Top Day Rec

10.05.09

Unemployment on Friday came in at 9.8% with a job loss of -263K, about 88K worse than estimated. Markets sold off but rebalanced at day’s end; buy the rumor, sell the news.

Overnight, some dollar weakness seeps back into the market after G-20 says little, if anything, specifically about dollar weakness.

ISM services index reading out at 10.

Easing of tensions in Nigeria and the weak jpbs number has put pressure on crude.

  

Oct 05	10:00	ISM Services	Sep		49.0	50.0	48.4
Oct 07	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/02		NA	NA	2.80M
Oct 07	14:00	Consumer Credit	Aug		-15.0B	-9.5B	-21.6B
Oct 07	14:00	Treasury Budget	Sep		NA	NA	NA
Oct 08	08:30	Initial Claims	10/03		550K	NA	551K
Oct 08	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/26		6050K	NA	6090K
Oct 08	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Aug		-1.2%	-1.0%	-1.4%
Oct 09	08:30	Trade Balance	Aug		-31.0B	-32.9B	-32.0B

   

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.60    

Dec Swiss: neg with res at 97.20    

Dec EC: pos with support at 144.95

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 91.50

Dec BP:  neg with res at 160.40     

Dec ES: neg with res at 1029.00

Dec NQ: neg with res at 1675    

Dec Mini Dow: neg with res at 9491  

Dec Gold: pos with support at 991.20

Dec Silver: neg with res at 16.51    

Dec Copper: neg with res at 272

Nov Crude: support at 67.30       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.07

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.50

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 118.29 

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 122.45  

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5533

Dec NKD neg with res at 9905  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.