Crude tracked the gold higher, however and finished out the session in the top end of the range

Weekly Futures Report

11.25.09

Filed Wednesday 3:09 pm

ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars    

                                                            Last                               Last Week   

Jan Crude                                          77.96                                80.10  

Jan Heat                                             203.61                             209.43

Jan XRB (Blended Gas)                    202.08                            204.03

On Wednesday, oil attempted to rally on the back of a weaker dollar and surging gold prices but at first found it difficult to do so. The Department of Energy numbers, taken by themselves, were slightly bullish. The trade had been looking for a build or increase in crude stocks of 1.5 million barrels and the increase was only 1 million barrels.  Gasoline saw a build of 300,000 barrels versus an expected increase of 1 million barrels. Distillates stocks saw a decrease of 529,000 barrels while the trade had been looking for stock levels to remain unchanged from the previous week. In a bigger time frame, the trading pattern itself remains negative with lower lows and lower highs. Also, crude oil's performance considering the weakness of the dollar and the parabolic advance of gold remains generally disappointing.  As the day unfolded, crude tracked the gold higher, however and finished out the session in the top end of the range.  

                                                              Support                            Resistance

Jan Crude                                             74.20                            78.60        

Jan Heat                                               195.00                         205.00

Jan Gas                                                 192.00                              203.00                                                             

***********************     

METALS

                                                            Last                             Last Week     

Feb Gold                                            1190.10                          1145.50             

Mar Silver                                          18.86                                 18.57              

Jan Platinum                                     1477.20                         1444.90

Gold continued to advance in price over the past five sessions while silver remained virtually at similar prices from a week ago. The perception of a continually weakening dollar is a gold market positive while news that Dubai World, that government’s holding company, is struggling with a $59 billion repayment was also supportive to gold. Dubai World is seeking to delay repayment of all its debt and extend maturities of this debt including 3.52 billion of Islamic bonds due for repayment December 14. On this news, credit default prices soared. Dubai has $4.3 billion in interest payments due next month and another 4.9 billion in first quarter of 2010. The possible inability to satisfy this repayment is a positive for the gold.  Another positive for the gold was the intervening holiday period as players don't want to worry about short positions in the metal over a long weekend. Relative strength in gold at 84 in gold is certainly an indication that the market is  overbought while the market has yet to show other classical technical signs that would imply an intermediate trend reversal is about to unfold.

 

                                                    Support                                      Resistance

Feb Gold                                   1152.00                                 1195.00                                                         

Mar Silver                                   18.17                                            18.90                      

Jan Plat                                     1423.00                                       1485.00    

                                     *********************************

SOFTS

                                                                Last                          Last Week

Mar Coffee                                            138.65                           140.75

Mar Sugar                                              22.56                              23.21

Money flow in sugar remains negative while most fundamental stories remain bullish. A story that came out on Wednesday indicated that sugar may jump 36% 29 year highs because of drought damaged crops in India. Over the past year sugar has almost doubled in price. Market action remains negative however so fundamental news has probably already been baked into prices.

Money flow in coffee remains negative.

 

                                                Support                                  Resistance

Mar Coffee                                  134.50                                    140.00        

Mar Sugar                                    21.70                                     22.80   

                                       *****************************************          

                                                                  Last                            Last Week

 Jan Soybeans                                          10.544                               10.27

Mar Corn                                                  4.08                                 4.136 

Mar Wheat                                               5.714                                 5.88

Cash market prices in soybeans moved closer to futures prices as farmers stepped up physical sales into a rising market. The weak dollar continues to support price levels for soybeans while it could be said that January futures are having trouble piercing resistance between 10.60 to 10.75.  Back on November 23, there was a huge price rejection day as prices traded as high as 10.66 only to close at 10.42.

Money flow in wheat remains negative. Wheat was higher on Wednesday for the first time more than a week on the belief that demand will improve as we head into the end of the year. Iraq was a buyer of hard red winter wheat over night. The chart pattern in wheat remains negative however with obvious chart resistance at six dollars a bushel.

Corn was also higher on Wednesday after being down for five straight sessions. Market sees good resistance at $4.20 a bushel with chart support at $3.80 a bushel.

 

 

                                                                Support                          Resistance

Jan Soybeans                                          10.25                                   10.60

Mar Corn                                                3.82                                    4.08

Mar Wheat                                              5.33                                    5.91

 

Chuck Kespert

NY/NY

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.