Much lower than unemployment number seeding the idea that the recession might be over

Top Day Rec

12.07.09

The unemployment number surprisingly came in at 10% with a job loss of just 11K versus an expectation of negative 125K with a downward revision in the previous month. This was enough to seed the idea that the recession was over and that the Fed may now look towards the moment to raise rates. With that shift, gold came off sharply and the dollar saw strength. This carries over to the early trade on Monday. More rebalancing today due to margin considerations.       

  

Dec 07	15:00	Consumer Credit	Oct		-$11.6B	-$9.3B	-$14.8B
Dec 09	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Oct		-0.8%	-0.5%	-0.9%
Dec 09	10:30	Crude Inventories	12/04		NA	NA	2.09M
Dec 10	08:30	Initial Claims	12/05		450K	465K	457K
Dec 10	08:30	Continuing Claims	12/04		5475K	5435K	5465K
Dec 10	08:30	Trade Balance	Oct		-$35.0B	-$37.0B	-$36.5B
Dec 10	14:00	Treasury Budget	Nov		-$135.0B	-$134.1B	-$176.4B
Dec 11	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Nov		NA	NA	0.3%
Dec 11	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Nov		NA	NA	0.4%
Dec 11	08:30	Retail Sales	Nov		1.0%	0.7%	1.4%
Dec 11	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Nov		0.2%	0.4%	0.2%
Dec 11	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Dec		69.7	68.5	67.4
Dec 11	10:00	Business Inventories	Oct		-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.4%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only, not fundamental.

 

Dec ES: pos with support at 1096

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1774 

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 1030  

Feb Gold: pos with support at 1140 and 1111

Mar Silver: potential reversal day      

Mar Copper: pos with support at 319.40

Dec Yen: neg with res at 112.50          

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 97.50        

Dec EC: pos with support at 147.50

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 95.30      

Dec BP:  neg with res at 165.90    

Dec Aussie: pos with support at 90.50    

Jan Crude: neg with res at 77.20         

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 10.43    

Mar Wheat: neg with res at 5.70       

Mar Ten Year:  neg with res at 118.21

Mar 30 Year : neg with res at 119.31

Mar Eurodollar: neg with res at 99.61     

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International Markets

Mar Bund: pos with support at 122.44     

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5878

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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