Weekly Futures Report
12.30.09
Filed Tuesday 3:10 pm
ALL CHARTS THIS WEEK ARE Daily Bars
Last Last Week (12.21)
Feb Crude 79.33 74.31
Feb Heat 212.00 196.84
Feb XRB (Blended Gas) 205.66 191.07
Crude oil was trading above $79 a barrel at midday on Wednesday
as
cold weather continued to grip the Northeast United States.
Recent
economic numbers continue to suggest an expansion in US economic
activity and with that, better demand for energy. Crude oil is
trading at
a two-month high. Oil is up 77% for the year. Traders are busy
locking
in profits on Wednesday before the end of the year. Weather
patterns
continue to suggest that the major arctic cold wave will remain
in
densely populated Northeast. US consumer confidence rose for a
second
month and home prices rose again in 20 major US cities. This
housing
index has risen every month since June. The International Energy
Agency raised 2007 global forecasts to 86.3 million barrels a
day more
than 100 thousand barrels higher than its previous estimate. For
the
latest reporting week, crude stocks were down 1.54 million
barrels.
Gasoline stocks were lower by 366,000 barrels while the trade
had been
looking for an increase of 1 million barrels. Distillates were
down 2.06
million barrels slightly better than the expected drawdown of
2.3
million barrels. Money flow for crude oil continues to be
positive.
Money flow for heating oil and gasoline are also positive.
Support Resistance
Feb Crude 77.40 80.00
Feb Heat 207.201 215.00
Feb Gas 199.80 207.00
***********************
METALS
Last Last Week 12.21
Feb Gold 1093.8 1085.40
Mar Silver 16.81 16.99
April Platinum 1460.0 1404.40
Gold and silver continued to come under year and profit taking
pressure as the dollar increased in value against major foreign
currencies going into year end. US economic figures continued to
show expansion. Gold is down over 7% for the month of December.
Gold is up 24% for the year, however. Thin trading conditions
due to
year off considerations have exacerbated price moves. Year and
profit taking has also been seen. Some believe that the
conditions
warranting keeping interest rates at artificially low levels may
be
ending. Rising US interest rates would cut into demand for gold
as
an investment vehicle. Money flow in gold is negative. Money
flow in
silver and platinum is positive.
Support Resistance
Feb Gold 1072.50 1113.00
Mar Silver 16.65 17.72
April Plat 1450.00 1502.00
*********************************
SOFTS
Last Last Week 12.21
Mar Coffee 137.25 142.25
Mar Sugar 26.92 26.56
Money flow in coffee is negative. After making-a high for the
year at
149.50 on December 16, prices have fallen sharply to the b136.50
level,
the nominal price since the middle of May of this year.
Money flow in sugar continues to be positive. Traders continue
to
attempt to profit from the ever increasing supply deficit. Sugar
has
more than doubled in price this year. Bad weather reduced yields
in
Brazil and India. The lower close yesterday afternoon after
making a
life of contract high was cause for caution however. Expect more
year
end profit taking.
Support Resistance
Mar Coffee 134.50 140.00
Mar Sugar 26.20 27.70
*****************************************
Last Last Week 12.21
Mar Soybeans 10.444 9.984
Mar Corn 4.136 3.986
Mar Wheat 5.446 5.23
Dollar strength at year end slowed the rally in soybeans. A
close above
10.42 for March soybeans on Wednesday flips the intermediate
trend
positive. If the Federal Reserve withdraws stimulus measures as
the US
economy continues to recover, the dollar would strengthen
against
major foreign currencies and this would prove a negative for
soybeans
for the early part of next year.
Wheat fell back in price as higher prices were seen as
potentially
curbing demand. Wheat is down 11% for the year. Money flow in
wheat
remains positive.
Corn is trading at its best level since the beginning of the
month. The
market remains concerned about damage done to late harvesting
from
snow and ice. It was the slowest harvest on record since 1986
according
to the Department of Agriculture. Money flow in corn remains
positive.
Support Resistance
Mar Soybeans 10.20 10.65
Mar Corn 4.11 4.20
Mar Wheat 5.30 5.60
