Gold Rallies on the back of the Dollar Weakness

Top Day Rec

05.12.09

The Trade Balance figure improves a bit, a modest sign of eco strength and this has trimmed some of the dollar weakness seen overnight. Gold rallied into resistance at 923 on the back of the weaker dollar and stronger crude. Most of this remains range trading however and a lot of cross currency consideration. British makes a new recent high into resistance of 153.25 and the market seems to be rejecting this area as seen below. Trend is still up but the value isn’t there right now.

May 12	08:30	Trade Balance	Mar	-$29.5B	-$29.2B	-$26.0B
May 12	14:00	Treasury Budget	Apr	NA	-$63.0B	$159.3B
May 13	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Apr	NA	NA	0.1%
May 13	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Apr	NA	NA	-0.6%
May 13	08:30	Retail Sales	Apr	-0.2%	-0.1%	-1.2%
May 13	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Apr	0.0%	0.0%	-1.0%
May 13	10:00	Business Inventories	Mar	-1.0%	-1.1%	-1.3%
May 13	10:30	Crude Inventories	05/08	NA	NA	+605K
May 14	08:30	Core PPI	Apr	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
May 14	08:30	Initial Claims	05/09	580k	NA	601K
May 14	08:30	PPI	Apr	0.2%	0.1%	-1.2%
May 15	08:30	Core CPI	Apr	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
May 15	08:30	CPI	Apr	0.0%	0.0%	-0.1%
May 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	May	-14.0	-15.0	-14.65
May 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows		NA	NA	$22.0B
May 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Apr	69.1%	68.9%	69.3%
May 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Apr	-0.4%	-0.6%	-1.5%
May 15	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	May	65.2	65.0	65.1

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: potential reversal day

June Swiss: positive with support at 89.65

June EC: positive with support at 134.90

June Canadian: positive with support at 85.75

June BP: pos with support at 149.70.

June ES: positive with support at 895.00

June NQ: positive with support at 1375.50

June Russell: positive with support at 498.00

June Mini Dow: positive with support at 8350

Jun Gold: positive with support at 904

July Silver: pos with support at 13.75

July crude: positive with support at 58.25

July Soybeans: positive with support at 10.97

July Wheat: positive with support at 5.84

June Ten Year: positive with support at 120.21

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 121.15

June Dax: pos with support at 4825

NK: pos with support at 9335

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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