Blow-off of Euro Dollar Futures after an Inexorable Rally

Top Day Rec

05.27

Fairly light news day with Existing Home Sales at 10. Then we have 3 days of treasury auctions. Rates have been backing up. Dec Eurodollars look like a blow-off top after an inexorable rally.

90% of GM bond holders failed to convert their debt to equity which moves GM closer to bankruptcy.

 

May 26	09:00	S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index	Mar		NA	-18.4%	-18.63%
May 26	10:00	Consumer Confidence	May		43.0	42.0	39.2
May 27	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Apr		4.65M	4.65M	4.57M
May 28	08:30	Durable Goods Orders	Apr		0.0%	0.5%	-0.8%
May 28	08:30	Durables, Ex-Transport	Apr		-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.6%
May 28	08:30	Initial Claims	05/23		615K	NA	631K
May 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Apr		365K	363K	356K
May 28	11:00	Crude Inventories	5/22		NA	NA	-2.10M
May 29	08:30	GDP - Prelim.	Q1		-5.5%	-5.5%	-6.1%
May 29	08:30	GDP Deflator	Q1		2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
May 29	09:45	Chicago PMI	May		41.0	42.0	40.1
May 29	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	May		68.0	68.0	67.9

     

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: possible reversal day    

June Swiss: positive with support at 91.70

June EC: positive with support at 138.74  

June Canadian: positive with support at 88.46

June BP:  pos with support at 158.10.     

June ES: neg with res at 920.00

June NQ: neg with res at 1435  

June Russell: neg with res at 509    

June Mini Dow: neg with res at 8566

Jun Gold: positive with support at 938.40    

July Silver: pos with support at 14.34

July crude: positive with support at 60.50.         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.63

July Wheat: positive with support at 6.23

June Ten Year: neg with res at 119.14       

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 120.05        

June Dax: pos with support at 4860

NK: pos with support at 9313  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.