OPEC Expected to Leave the Quota Unchanged

Top Day Rec

05.28

Initial claims at 8:30. New Home Sales at 10 and the delayed release of the Department of Energy numbers for crude and its products at 10:30.

Another day of Treasury offerings. The real story in these markets is the cost of money which has been increasing lately. Yield curve as measured by the differential between the 2 and 10 year notes is at a record level. By itself, this can trample the green shoots of the nascent eco recovery.

OPEC is meeting and is expected to leave quotas unchanged.      

 

May 26	09:00	S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index	Mar		NA	-18.4%	-18.63%
May 26	10:00	Consumer Confidence	May		43.0	42.0	39.2
May 27	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Apr		4.65M	4.65M	4.57M
May 28	08:30	Durable Goods Orders	Apr		0.0%	0.5%	-0.8%
May 28	08:30	Durables, Ex-Transport	Apr		-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.6%
May 28	08:30	Initial Claims	05/23		615K	NA	631K
May 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Apr		365K	363K	356K
May 28	11:00	Crude Inventories	5/22		NA	NA	-2.10M
May 29	08:30	GDP - Prelim.	Q1		-5.5%	-5.5%	-6.1%
May 29	08:30	GDP Deflator	Q1		2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
May 29	09:45	Chicago PMI	May		41.0	42.0	40.1
May 29	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	May		68.0	68.0	67.9

       

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 105.08    

June Swiss: positive with support at 91.35

June EC: potential reversal day   

June Canadian: positive with support at 88.70

June BP:  pos with support at 158.50.     

June ES: neg with res at 907.50

June NQ: neg with res at 1422  

June Russell: neg with res at 198.50    

June Mini Dow: neg with res at 8445

Jun Gold: positive with support at 939.60    

July Silver: pos with support at 14.50

July crude: positive with support at 61.50.         

July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.75

July Wheat: positive with support at 6.15

June Ten Year: neg with res at 118.13       

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 119.65        

June Dax: pos with support at 4880

NK: pos with support at 9296  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.