Dollar Futures Weak on the Confluence of Several Factors

Top Day Rec

05.28

Prelim GDP contracts at -5.7% which is a bit better than the expected -6.1%. Consumption was lower however. The dollar is weaker on the confluence several ideas: the recession is over or lack of foreign buyers for US debt means lack of demand for US dollars.

Chicago area Purchasing managers at 9:45 and U of Michigan consumer confidence rounds out the shortened trading week.

 

May 26	09:00	S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index	Mar		NA	-18.4%	-18.63%
May 26	10:00	Consumer Confidence	May		43.0	42.0	39.2
May 27	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Apr		4.65M	4.65M	4.57M
May 28	08:30	Durable Goods Orders	Apr		0.0%	0.5%	-0.8%
May 28	08:30	Durables, Ex-Transport	Apr		-0.5%	-0.3%	-0.6%
May 28	08:30	Initial Claims	05/23		615K	NA	631K
May 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Apr		365K	363K	356K
May 28	11:00	Crude Inventories	5/22		NA	NA	-2.10M
May 29	08:30	GDP - Prelim.	Q1		-5.5%	-5.5%	-6.1%
May 29	08:30	GDP Deflator	Q1		2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
May 29	09:45	Chicago PMI	May		41.0	42.0	40.1
May 29	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	May		68.0	68.0	67.9

     

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

 

June Yen: neg with res at 104.75    

June Swiss: positive with support at 91.54

June EC: pos with support at 138.55   

June Canadian: positive with support at 89.01

June BP:  pos with support at 158.80.     

June ES: neg with res at 913.75

June NQ: neg with res at 1432  

June Russell: neg with res at 497.50    

June Mini Dow: neg with res at 8462

Aug Gold: positive with support at 958.50 (get out of June gold/it’s in delivery notice)    

July Silver: pos with support at 14.79

July crude: positive with support at 63.40.         

July Soybeans: potential reversal day

July Wheat: positive with support at 6.16 ¾

June Ten Year: neg with res at 118.18       

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International Markets

June Bund: potential reversal day        

June Dax: pos with support at 4887

NK: pos with support at 9381  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.   

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

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