Private Jobs Numbers Worse Than Expected

Top Day Rec

06.03

ADP private jobs forecast comes in worse than expected at -532K, 40K more than previous month. Of course, we get the US unemployment report on Friday. Then there’s factory orders and the ISM survey at 10 and oil inventories from The Department of Energy at 10.30

Going into today’s session, many markets were at or were approaching overbought levels: stocks, EC, gold, etc.

Fed Chairman testifies at 10.

Euro stocks lower on ideas that rally is outpacing earnings prospects. Euro zone unemployment at 9.2%

Jun 01	08:30	Personal Income	Apr	0.5%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%
Jun 01	08:30	Personal Spending	Apr	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Jun 01	10:00	Construction Spending	Apr		-1.2%	-0.8%	0.3%
Jun 01	10:00	ISM Index	May		41.0	42.0	40.1
Jun 02	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Apr		NA	NA	3.2%
Jun 02	14:00	Auto Sales	May		NA	NA	3.2M
Jun 02	14:00	Truck Sales	May		NA	NA	3.8M
Jun 03	08:15	ADP Employment Change	May		-520K	-543K	-491K
Jun 03	10:00	Factory Orders	Apr		0.5%	0.3%	-0.9%
Jun 03	10:00	ISM Services	May		45.0	45.0	43.7
Jun 03	10:30	Crude Inventories	05/29		NA	NA	-5.41M
Jun 04	08:30	Initial Claims	05/30		610K	620K	623K
Jun 04	08:30	Productivity-Rev.	Q1		1.4%	1.2%	0.8%
Jun 04	08:30	Unit Labor Costs	Q1		2.7%	2.9%	3.3%
Jun 05	08:30	Average Workweek	May		33.2	33.2	33.2
Jun 05	08:30	Hourly Earnings	May		0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jun 05	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	May		-525K	-550K	-539K
Jun 05	08:30	Unemployment Rate	May		9.2%	9.2%	8.9%
Jun 05	14:00	Consumer Credit	Apr		-$6.0B	-$6.0B	-$11.1B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: neg with res at 105.15

June Swiss: positive with support at 93.45

June EC: pos with support at 141.68

June Canadian: positive with support at 91.50

June BP: pos with support at 164.00.

June ES: pos with support at 927.50

June NQ: pos with support at 1464

June Russell: pos with support at 518

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 8647

Aug Gold: positive with support at 974.00

July Silver: pos with support at 15.60

July crude: positive with support at 66.90.

July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.90

July Wheat: positive with support at 6.52

June Ten Year: neg with res at 118.01

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International Markets

June Bund: pos with support at 118.75

June Dax: pos with support at 5066

NK: pos with support at 9690

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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