ECB and BOE Keep the Rate Unchanged, Dollar Strengthens

Top Day Rec

06.04

As a preliminary to Friday’s unemployment report, we get initial claims at 8:30, then productivity and finally unit labor costs.

Overnight, there was Yen weakness as Japanese investors ramped up purchases of foreign investments while Japanese companies slashed spending as profits cratered.

ECB and BOE were expected to leave rates unchanged. (They did.)

The Fed chairman was very sober in his assessment of the economy yesterday; he didn’t exactly bring a punch bowl to the party.

The dollar regained some strength and is expected to do well against the Yen.

UK home values better by 2.6%. Observers had been expecting a decline.

Jun 01	08:30	Personal Income	Apr	0.5%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.3%
Jun 01	08:30	Personal Spending	Apr	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%
Jun 01	10:00	Construction Spending	Apr		-1.2%	-0.8%	0.3%
Jun 01	10:00	ISM Index	May		41.0	42.0	40.1
Jun 02	10:00	Pending Home Sales	Apr		NA	NA	3.2%
Jun 02	14:00	Auto Sales	May		NA	NA	3.2M
Jun 02	14:00	Truck Sales	May		NA	NA	3.8M
Jun 03	08:15	ADP Employment Change	May		-520K	-543K	-491K
Jun 03	10:00	Factory Orders	Apr		0.5%	0.3%	-0.9%
Jun 03	10:00	ISM Services	May		45.0	45.0	43.7
Jun 03	10:30	Crude Inventories	05/29		NA	NA	-5.41M
Jun 04	08:30	Initial Claims	05/30		610K	620K	623K
Jun 04	08:30	Productivity-Rev.	Q1		1.4%	1.2%	0.8%
Jun 04	08:30	Unit Labor Costs	Q1		2.7%	2.9%	3.3%
Jun 05	08:30	Average Workweek	May		33.2	33.2	33.2
Jun 05	08:30	Hourly Earnings	May		0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jun 05	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	May		-525K	-550K	-539K
Jun 05	08:30	Unemployment Rate	May		9.2%	9.2%	8.9%
Jun 05	14:00	Consumer Credit	Apr		-$6.0B	-$6.0B	-$11.1B

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

June Yen: neg as long as it trades lower than 104.30 with an obj of 103.20

June Swiss: neg as long as it’s lower than 93.57 with an obj of 92.84

June EC: neg as long as it trades below 142.00 with an obj of 140.80

June Canadian: neg as long as it trades below 90.95 with an obj of 89.25

June BP: neg as long as it trades below 164.00 with an obj of 161.50

June ES: neg as long as it trades below 933.50 with an obj of 921.00

June NQ: pos as long as it trades above 1473.50 with an obj of 1488.00

June Mini Dow: neg as long as it trades below 8667 with an obj of 8590

Aug Gold: neg as long as it trades below 973 with an obj of 955

July Silver: neg as long as it trades below 15.60 with an obj of 15.00

July crude: pos as long as it trades above 66.65 with an obj of 68.30.

July Soybeans: pos as long as it trades above 11.90 with an obj of 12.00

July Wheat: neg as long as it trades lower than 6.334 with an obj 5.984

Sept Ten Year: neg as long as it trades below 116.00 with an obj of 115.21

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos as long as it treades above 118.90 with an obj of 119.50

June Dax: neg as long as it trades below 5085 with a obj of 4995

NK: pos as long as it trades above 9638 with an obj of 9730

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.