Crude Oil Futures Continue Higher on Momentum Trades

Top Day Rec

06.11.09

This should be rollover day for stock index futures. September (September?!) will be front month. September ES is trading at a 4 handle discount to June.

Overnight, crude continued higher on momentum trades. The dollar is generally weaker, especially against the commodity currencies. Yen remains negative.

Retail sales at 8:30. 30 year auction today. There’s a high potential for massive vol at 1pm.

MasterCard reports more use of debit cards than credit cards. This says a lot about the present state of consumerism. People aren’t spending what they don’t have.

Gold continues to have mounting any sustainable rally.

Interestingly enough, your average cargo ship costs 58K a day to lease while that same ship can be leased for 24K 1 year out. What does this suggest? Just in time leasing?

China’s buying binge of commodities is to restore inventories and prevent internal price shocks.

Jun 09	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Apr	-1.0%	-1.0%	-1.6%
Jun 10	08:30	Trade Balance	Apr	-$29.5B	-$28.7B	-$27.6B
Jun 10	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/05	NA	NA	+2.87M
Jun 10	14:00	Treasury Budget	May	NA	-$175.0B	NA
Jun 10	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Jun 11	08:30	Retail Sales	May	0.3%	0.3%	-0.4%
Jun 11	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	May	0.0%	0.2%	-0.5%
Jun 11	08:30	Initial Claims	06/06	610K	625K	621K
Jun 11	10:00	Business Inventories	Apr	-0.8%	-0.8%	-1.0%
Jun 12	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	May	NA	NA	-0.3%
Jun 12	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	May	NA	NA	-0.7%
Jun 12	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Jun	70.5	70.0	68.7

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

June Yen: neg so expect a test of 101.30

June Swiss: pos with support at 91.92

June EC: pos with support at 138.75

June Canadian: pos with support at 90.33

June BP: pos despite all its well chronicled problems. Support at 162.90

June ES: pos with support at 927

June NQ: pos with support at 1474

June Mini Dow: pos with support at 8640

Aug Gold: really sloppy with support at 947

July Silver: ditto with support at 15.00

July crude: in it’s own universe with res at 72.50

July Soybeans: pos with support at 12.45

July Wheat: pos with support at 5.86

Sept Ten Year: neg. with res at 113.10

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 117.50

June Dax: neg with res at 5118

NKD: pos with support at 100.11

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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