Weekly Jobless Claims Slightly Higher Than Expected

Top Day Rec

06.18.09

Weekly jobless claims, expected at 604K, came in at 608K. Continuing claims at 6.7 million, down from 6.8 million. Stocks bumped higher on the better than expected continuing claims.

Leading eco indicators and Philly Fed at 10 and that clears the slate for eco data points for the week.

Overnight, the markets generally wandered through the night, looking for direction or inspiration and finding neither. UK retail sales were lower than expected and this took the Pound lower by 2 cents. Swiss is holding its own against the EC as the Swiss central bank is apparently not targeting a specific exchange rate but at 8:35 am someone said something and the market cratered 60 points. Crude traded a dollar range and is finding support at 71.10 and resistance at 72.10.

Treasury Secretary is on Capital Hill this morning.

Jun 15	08:30	NY Empire Manufacturing Index	Jun	NA	-5.10	-4.55
Jun 15	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Apr	NA	$52.9B	$55.8B
Jun 16	08:30	Housing Starts	May	NA	483K	458K
Jun 16	08:30	Building Permits	May	NA	500K	498K
Jun 16	08:30	PPI	May	NA	0.6%	0.3%
Jun 16	08:30	Core PPI	May	NA	0.1%	0.1%
Jun 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	May	NA	68.4%	69.1%
Jun 16	09:15	Industrial Production	May	NA	-0.8%	-0.5%
Jun 17	08:30	Core CPI	May	NA	0.1%	0.3%
Jun 17	08:30	CPI	May	NA	-0.9%	-0.7%
Jun 17	08:30	Current Account Balance	Q1	NA	-$85.0B	-$132.8B
Jun 17	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/12	NA	NA	-4.38M
Jun 18	08:30	Initial Claims	06/13	NA	610K	601K
Jun 18	10:00	Leading Indicators	May	NA	0.9%	1.0%
Jun 18	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Jun	NA	-17.0	-22.6

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

Sept Yen: pos with support at 102.90.

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.96

Sept EC: pos with support at 138.40.

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 89.00

Sept BP: potential reversal day if it can close above 163.90

Sept ES: neg with res at 913.00

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1469

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8494

Aug Gold: positive with support at 935.

July Silver: positive with support at 14.02.

July crude: pos with support at 70.30

Nov Soybeans: pos with support at 10.32

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 6.02

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 114.10

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 119.24

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4882

NKD: neg with res at 9878

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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