Recession News Putting Pressure on Commodities Lifting Dollar

Top Day Rec

6.22.09

No eco data releases today. World Bank projection of a deeper recession than previously forecast put selling pressure on equities, crude, gold and lifted the dollar overnight. Rates are also lower this morning based on this vision of economic weakness with the 10 year at a yield of 3.789%.The market is also pointing towards the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged but attention will be focused, as always, on the communiqué. Look for a reversal this afternoon for currencies and crude.

  

Jun 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	May		NA	4.83M	4.68M
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders	May		NA	-0.9%	1.9%
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation	May		NA	-0.5%	0.8%
Jun 24	10:00	New Home Sales	May		NA	360K	352K
Jun 24	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/19		NA	NA	-3.87M
Jun 24	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision
Jun 25	08:30	Initial Claims	06/20		NA	608K	NA
Jun 25	08:30	Q1 GDP - Final	Q1		NA	-5.7%	-5.7%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Income	May		NA	0.2%	0.5%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Spending	May		NA	0.4%	-0.1%
Jun 26	08:30	PCE Core	May		NA	0.2%	0.3%
Jun 26	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Jun		NA	69.0	69.0

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.76

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.45

Sept EC: pos with support at 138.10.   

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 88.40

Sept BP:  neg with res at 166.10        

Sept ES: potential reversal day    

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1478     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8550   

Aug Gold: positive but below daily support of 927.5     

July Silver: potential reversal day

Aug crude: pos with support at 67.30      

Nov Soybeans: potential reversal day  

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.87

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 113.25        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 119.03       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4855

NKD: potential reversal day

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

  

Charles Kespert

 

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