FOMC concludes their 2 day meeting today

Top Day Rec

6.24.09

FOMC day. The Fed will conclude their two day meeting today and release a communiqué at 2:15. Although it’s universally expected that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, the devil is in the details of the press release as they characterize their view of the economy and prospects walking forward.

Overnight, well it sure looked like a unilateral intervention by the Swiss as futures swoon this morning at 7:15 am. Intervention has neither been confirmed nor denied, however. They have been making a lot of noise lately about their exchange rate with the EC.

37 Billion in 5 years notes today go to auction.

Department of Energy Day with crude inventories at 10:30

Rememeber, FOMC day is one of the two trading days of the month when your equity can be seriously revalued so if you trade with a foreshortened time horizon, cover most of your exposures by 1:30.  

  

Two year notes being auctioned today.    

Jun 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	May		NA	4.83M	4.68M
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders	May		NA	-0.9%	1.9%
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation	May		NA	-0.5%	0.8%
Jun 24	10:00	New Home Sales	May		NA	360K	352K
Jun 24	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/19		NA	NA	-3.87M
Jun 24	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision
Jun 25	08:30	Initial Claims	06/20		NA	608K	NA
Jun 25	08:30	Q1 GDP - Final	Q1		NA	-5.7%	-5.7%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Income	May		NA	0.2%	0.5%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Spending	May		NA	0.4%	-0.1%
Jun 26	08:30	PCE Core	May		NA	0.2%	0.3%
Jun 26	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Jun		NA	69.0	69.0

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 104.50

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.20

Sept EC: pos with support at 140.00 and 139.00.   

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 87.75

Sept BP:  neg with res at 166.40        

Sept ES: neg with res at 899    

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1434     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8360   

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 921   

July Silver: neg with res at 13.95

Aug crude: pos with support at 67.20   

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.13

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.81

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 115.00        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 119.94       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4796

NKD: neg with res at 9720

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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