Fed leaves rate unchanged/Weekly unemployment data today

Top Day Rec

6.25.09

Fed leaves rates unchanged and seems a bit more upbeat in their assessment of the economy.

The Fed Chairman gives testimony today about BOA and Merrill and what was his exact role in this acquisition. Should be lively.

Weekly unemployment claims and final Q1 GDP at 8:30.  

The market can’t develop a consensus. Each day is a one day phenomena. The World Bank states that the recession will be worse than they originally thought and the market falls sharply. Then, the attention shifts back to 12.8 billion dollars in stimulus and how this will eventually result in inflationary pressures and the dollar weakens. Then the attention flips back to projections of unemployment of 10% and record lows for cap utilization and how excess capacity will maintain deflationary pressures.  And so it goes.    

   

Jun 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	May		NA	4.83M	4.68M
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders	May		NA	-0.9%	1.9%
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation	May		NA	-0.5%	0.8%
Jun 24	10:00	New Home Sales	May		NA	360K	352K
Jun 24	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/19		NA	NA	-3.87M
Jun 24	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision
Jun 25	08:30	Initial Claims	06/20		NA	608K	NA
Jun 25	08:30	Q1 GDP - Final	Q1		NA	-5.7%	-5.7%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Income	May		NA	0.2%	0.5%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Spending	May		NA	0.4%	-0.1%
Jun 26	08:30	PCE Core	May		NA	0.2%	0.3%
Jun 26	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Jun		NA	69.0	69.0

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.55

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 89.90

Sept EC: pos with support at 138.50.   

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 87.50

Sept BP:  neg with res at 165.50      

Sept ES: potential reversal day     

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1462     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8350   

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 922   

July Silver: potential reversal day  

Aug crude: pos with support at 67.85   

Nov Soybeans: potential reversal day

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.775

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 114.24        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.10       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4886

NKD: neg with res at 9928

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.    

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 ***********************     

 

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