Better consumer confidence news today

Top Day Rec

6.30.09

A better news day with consumer confidence and the closely watched Case-Schiller home price index which is expected to show a decline of 18% year on year. Also, Chicago area purchasing managers report.

Domestic markets closed Friday to observe the 4^th on the 3^rd.

Yet another treasury auction today.

UK economy contracts as GDP drops 2.4%, most since 1958. Some fear an eventual sterling crisis but BP, so far, has taken this in stride.

Jun 30	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Jun	56.0	55.1	54.9
Jun 30	09:00	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	Apr	NA	-18.75%	-18.70%
Jun 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Jun	38.5	38.5	34.9
Jul 01	08:15	ADP Employment Change	Jun	-400K	-363K	-532K
Jul 01	10:00	Construction Spending	May	-0.8%	-0.5%	0.8%
Jul 01	10:00	ISM Index	Jun	44.0	44.0	42.8
Jul 01	10:00	Pending Home Sales	May	0.0%	1.1%	6.7%
Jul 01	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/26	NA	NA	-3.87M
Jul 01	14:00	Auto Sales	Jun	NA	NA	3.3M
Jul 01	14:00	Truck Sales	Jun	NA	NA	4.1M
Jul 02	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Jun	-400K	-370K	-345K
Jul 02	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Jun	9.6%	9.6%	9.4%
Jul 02	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Jun	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 02	08:30	Average Workweek	Jun	33.1	33.1	33.1
Jul 02	08:30	Initial Claims	06/27	605K	NA	627K
Jul 02	10:00	Factory Orders	May	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.40

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.96

Sept EC: pos with support at 140.20

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.90 and 87.25

Sept BP: potential reversal day

Sept ES: neg with res at 917.50

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1468

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8510

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 934

July Silver: pos with support at 13.85

Aug crude: pos with support at 6930

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.03

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.66

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 116.04

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 120.96

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4946

NKD: neg with res at 1055

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.