Crude oil inventory number came out higher than expected

Top Day Rec

07.01.09

An even better news day than yesterday with the private ADP jobs forecast possibly opening a window to Thursday’s early release of the Unemployment data at 8:15 am (came in at 473K which, if this is correct, is better than the guesstimates out there for Thursday’s number), the ISM index and then crude oil inventories at 10:30.

Domestic markets closed Friday to observe the 4^th on the 3^rd.

Metals and equities were hurt yesterday by lower than expected consumer confidence.

Jun 30	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Jun	56.0	55.1	54.9
Jun 30	09:00	S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index	Apr	NA	-18.75%	-18.70%
Jun 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Jun	38.5	38.5	34.9
Jul 01	08:15	ADP Employment Change	Jun	-400K	-363K	-532K
Jul 01	10:00	Construction Spending	May	-0.8%	-0.5%	0.8%
Jul 01	10:00	ISM Index	Jun	44.0	44.0	42.8
Jul 01	10:00	Pending Home Sales	May	0.0%	1.1%	6.7%
Jul 01	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/26	NA	NA	-3.87M
Jul 01	14:00	Auto Sales	Jun	NA	NA	3.3M
Jul 01	14:00	Truck Sales	Jun	NA	NA	4.1M
Jul 02	08:30	Nonfarm Payrolls	Jun	-400K	-370K	-345K
Jul 02	08:30	Unemployment Rate	Jun	9.6%	9.6%	9.4%
Jul 02	08:30	Hourly Earnings	Jun	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Jul 02	08:30	Average Workweek	Jun	33.1	33.1	33.1
Jul 02	08:30	Initial Claims	06/27	605K	NA	627K
Jul 02	10:00	Factory Orders	May	0.2%	0.2%	0.7%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

Sept Yen: possible reversal day (down)

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.77

Sept EC: pos with support at 139.75

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.70

Sept BP: neg with res at 165.40

Sept ES: pos with support at 907.50

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1464

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8488

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 920

July Silver: pos with support at 13.35

Aug crude: pos with support at 6850

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.23

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.62

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 115.26

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 120.82

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4956

NKD: neg with res at 1098

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Ultimate sorrow is to love as gravity is to mass.

Charles Kespert

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