US unemployment rate is 9.5 % vs 9.6 % expected

Top Day Rec

07.02.09

Welcome to Jobs day and the end of the week. Even though the weather is hardly cooperating (10 inches of rain fell in Central Park last month and it’s still falling), today should be a get away day. Domestic markets observe a holiday Friday and are closed.

Overnight, dollar is stronger in front of the jobs data while ECB leaves rates unchanged.

Of course, the unemployment report can trigger quantum moves in financial futures so to go light might be bright.

    

Jun 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	May		NA	4.83M	4.68M
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders	May		NA	-0.9%	1.9%
Jun 24	08:30	Durable Orders, Ex-Transportation	May		NA	-0.5%	0.8%
Jun 24	10:00	New Home Sales	May		NA	360K	352K
Jun 24	10:30	Crude Inventories	06/19		NA	NA	-3.87M
Jun 24	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision
Jun 25	08:30	Initial Claims	06/20		NA	608K	NA
Jun 25	08:30	Q1 GDP - Final	Q1		NA	-5.7%	-5.7%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Income	May		NA	0.2%	0.5%
Jun 26	08:30	Personal Spending	May		NA	0.4%	-0.1%
Jun 26	08:30	PCE Core	May		NA	0.2%	0.3%
Jun 26	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Jun		NA	69.0	69.0

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: neg with res at 104.10

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.30

Sept EC: pos with support at 139.15  

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 87.75

Sept BP:  neg with res at 165.50      

Sept ES: pos with support at 906    

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1461     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8525  

Aug Gold: positive with support at 918   

Sept Silver: pos with support at 1345 

Aug crude: potential reversal day     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.36

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.465

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 115.12        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.75       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 44950

NKD: neg with res at 100.50

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.