More selling pressure on crude futures due to a protracted recession

Top Day Rec

07.06.09

The unemployment report was badly received and encouraged ideas that the economy is still in the grip of a protracted recession. More selling in crude ensued based on the perception of reduced demand with the yen higher on risk aversion, gold lower on lack of inflationary pressures, equities lower on the prospect of lower earnings, etc.

Overnight, more of the same.

      

Jul 06 10:00 ISM Services Jun   NA 46.0 44.0   Jul 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/03   NA NA -3.66M   Jul 08 15:00 Consumer Credit May   NA -$7.5B -$15.7B   Jul 09 08:30 Initial Claims 07/04   NA NA NA   Jul 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May   NA -1.0% -1.4%   Jul 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun   NA NA 0.3%   Jul 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun   NA NA 0.2%   Jul 10 08:30 Trade Balance May   NA -$30.0B -$29.2B   Jul 10 09:55 Mich Sentiment-Prel Jul   NA 71.0 70.8

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: potential reversal day  

Sept Swiss: pos but below daily support of 9171

Sept EC: pos but below daily support of 139.10  

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.46

Sept BP:  neg with res at 163.30      

Sept ES: pos with support at 884    

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1432     

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8272  

Aug Gold: positive but below daily support of 925   

Sept Silver: pos but way below daily support of 13.28

Aug crude: neg with res at 66.10     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.27

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.38

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 116.18        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 121.55       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4711

NKD: neg with res at 9800

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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