Traders continue to liquidate oil, gold and other commodities

Top Day Rec

07.09.09

Today offers up weekly jobless claims at 8:30 and wholesale inventories at 10.

Yesterday had a tinge of fear about it. The yen was wildly bid up to 109 as there was a capitulation to “carry trades” (borrow cheap yen and buy risk assets) as traders liquidated gold and oil and commodity currencies and paid back yen at any price (just get me out). The dollar was strong on this action and this was exacerbated by the US treasury auction which, in and of itself, was a wild success. (If you are domiciled in a foreign country and want to participate you have to buy dollars). Of course, with this 24 hour news cycle, EC, crude and oil are higher this morning while Yen is modestly lower on a snap back from this massive  liquidation.

Another auction today: the 30 year.

      

Jul 06 10:00 ISM Services Jun   NA 46.0 44.0   Jul 08 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/03   NA NA -3.66M   Jul 08 15:00 Consumer Credit May   NA -$7.5B -$15.7B   Jul 09 08:30 Initial Claims 07/04   NA NA NA   Jul 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May   NA -1.0% -1.4%   Jul 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun   NA NA 0.3%   Jul 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun   NA NA 0.2%   Jul 10 08:30 Trade Balance May   NA -$30.0B -$29.2B   Jul 10 09:55 Mich Sentiment-Prel Jul   NA 71.0 70.8

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 105.50 

Sept Swiss: potential reversal day (unlikely)

Sept EC: neg but above daily res at 139.80    

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.70

Sept BP:  neg but above daily res at 162.00       

Sept ES: potential reversal day      

Sept NQ: neg with res at 1417.50       

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8230  

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 905   

Sept Silver: neg with res at 13.08

Sept Copper: neg with res at 221.90

Aug crude: neg with res at 62    

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.12

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.28

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 117.22          

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 121.50       

Sept Dax: neg with res at 4663

NKD: neg with res at 9475

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.