Yen and dollar lower, crude higher, bonds lower

Top Day Rec

07.14.09

Happy Bastille Day. A busy day with retail sales being the key data point. It not only reflects consumer confidence but actual business activity. For some economists it has become the second most important eco release. Also, Goldman’s earnings, (the prospect of which triggered yesterday’s rally) and the Producer Price Index. Overnight, risk appetite has reentered the market with the Yen and dollar lower, crude higher, bonds lower. This may not hold up past 8:30 however.

Jul 13	14:00	Treasury Budget	Jun	NA	-$77.5B	$33.5B
Jul 14	08:30	Core PPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 14	08:30	PPI	Jun	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	10:00	Business Inventories	May	-1.0%	-1.0%	-1.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Core CPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	CPI	Jun	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Jul	-3.0	-5.00	-9.41
Jul 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Jun	67.9%	67.9%	68.3%
Jul 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Jun	-0.6%	-0.6%	-1.1%
Jul 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	07/10	NA	NA	-2.90M
Jul 15	14:00	Minutes of FOMC Meeting	June 24
Jul 16	08:30	Initial Claims	07/11	550K	NA	565K
Jul 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	May	NA	NA	$11.2B
Jul 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Jul	-5.0	-5.0	-2.2
Jul 17	08:30	Building Permits	Jun	520K	523K	518K
Jul 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Jun	525K	530K	532K

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

Sept Yen: pos with support at 106.85

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.98

Sept EC: neg with res at 140.18

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 87.35

Sept BP: neg with res at 163.30

Sept ES: pos with support at 875.00

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1412.50

Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8350

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 912

Sept Silver: neg with res at 12.94

Sept Copper: neg with res at 227

Aug crude: neg with res at 60.80

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.29

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.52

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 117.22

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at

Sept Dax: neg with res at

NKD: neg with res at

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.