Intel's earning popping stock futures today

Top Day Rec

07.15.09

Intel’s earnings popped the stock index futures after the close. Core CPI and Empire State (That’s New York) Manufacturing Index out at 8:30 with the oil weekly supply and demand numbers out at 10:30. And if you still want more, there’s more: the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting will be released at 2:00 pm. For the moment, focus is averted from rising unemployment resulting in soft demand in an environment of excess capacity.

Jul 13	14:00	Treasury Budget	Jun	NA	-$77.5B	$33.5B
Jul 14	08:30	Core PPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 14	08:30	PPI	Jun	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	10:00	Business Inventories	May	-1.0%	-1.0%	-1.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Core CPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	CPI	Jun	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Jul	-3.0	-5.00	-9.41
Jul 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Jun	67.9%	67.9%	68.3%
Jul 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Jun	-0.6%	-0.6%	-1.1%
Jul 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	07/10	NA	NA	-2.90M
Jul 15	14:00	Minutes of FOMC Meeting	June 24
Jul 16	08:30	Initial Claims	07/11	550K	NA	565K
Jul 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	May	NA	NA	$11.2B
Jul 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Jul	-5.0	-5.0	-2.2
Jul 17	08:30	Building Permits	Jun	520K	523K	518K
Jul 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Jun	525K	530K	532K

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today)

Sept Yen: potential reversal day on a close below 106.90

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.25

Sept EC: neg but above daily res at 140.60

Sept Canadian: potential reversal day on a close above 88.25

Sept BP: potential reversal day on a close above 163.15

Sept ES: pos with support at 895

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1446

Sept Mini Dow: potential reversal day on a close above 83.25

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 918

Sept Silver: reverses trend on a close above 12.905

Sept Copper: reverses on a close above 230

Aug crude: neg with res at 60.90 (stat day)

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.25

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.41

Sept Ten Year: reverses on a close below 117.185

**************

International Markets

Sept Bund: potential reversal day on a close below 121.75

Sept Dax: potential reversal day on a close above 4830

NKD: ps with support at 9295

***********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.