Weekly claims out today, unemployment seems to be still going up

Top Day Rec

07.16.09

Weekly claims today and tic flows (foreign investment in US debt markets). Yesterday, the market continued to go parabolic on the back of the Intel earnings announcement. Optimism is nice, euphoria is questionable, however. The unemployment rate seems to still be going up while excess capacity also seems to persist. If 2/3rds of GDP is consumer spending, well…

Jul 13	14:00	Treasury Budget	Jun	NA	-$77.5B	$33.5B
Jul 14	08:30	Core PPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 14	08:30	PPI	Jun	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	10:00	Business Inventories	May	-1.0%	-1.0%	-1.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Core CPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	CPI	Jun	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Jul	-3.0	-5.00	-9.41
Jul 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Jun	67.9%	67.9%	68.3%
Jul 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Jun	-0.6%	-0.6%	-1.1%
Jul 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	07/10	NA	NA	-2.90M
Jul 15	14:00	Minutes of FOMC Meeting	June 24
Jul 16	08:30	Initial Claims	07/11	550K	NA	565K
Jul 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	May	NA	NA	$11.2B
Jul 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Jul	-5.0	-5.0	-2.2
Jul 17	08:30	Building Permits	Jun	520K	523K	518K
Jul 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Jun	525K	530K	532K

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Sept Yen: neg with res at 107.27

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 92.30

Sept EC: neg but above daily res at 141.50

Sept Canadian: potential reversal day on a close above 88.72

Sept BP: potential reversal day on a close above 163.25

Sept ES: pos with support at 912.25

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1473

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8388

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 928.50

Sept Silver: pos with support at 12.93

Sept Copper: pos with support at 225.50

Aug crude: neg with res at 62.50

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.28

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.46

Sept Ten Year: reverses on a close below 117.15

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International Markets

Sept Bund: neg with res at 121.75

Sept Dax: pos with support at 4840

NKD: pos with support at 9288

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.