No promising signs for the gold bugs

Top Day Rec

07.16.09

Gold barely registered a pulse last night even as the news in Jakarta hit the wires. Not a promising sign for the bugs. Call the current range 944 to 917.

CIT, at least the factoring aspect of the business, may be bought by JP Morgan.

Housing starts and building permits at 8:30.

It’s hard to visualize income levels rise against debt levels as unemployment remains persistently high while the recent stock market rally, given its acute angle of accent, suggests short covering.

Jul 13	14:00	Treasury Budget	Jun	NA	-$77.5B	$33.5B
Jul 14	08:30	Core PPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	-0.1%
Jul 14	08:30	PPI	Jun	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jun	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%
Jul 14	10:00	Business Inventories	May	-1.0%	-1.0%	-1.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Core CPI	Jun	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	CPI	Jun	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%
Jul 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Jul	-3.0	-5.00	-9.41
Jul 15	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Jun	67.9%	67.9%	68.3%
Jul 15	09:15	Industrial Production	Jun	-0.6%	-0.6%	-1.1%
Jul 15	10:30	Crude Inventories	07/10	NA	NA	-2.90M
Jul 15	14:00	Minutes of FOMC Meeting	June 24
Jul 16	08:30	Initial Claims	07/11	550K	NA	565K
Jul 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	May	NA	NA	$11.2B
Jul 16	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Jul	-5.0	-5.0	-2.2
Jul 17	08:30	Building Permits	Jun	520K	523K	518K
Jul 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Jun	525K	530K	532K

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Sept Yen: neg with res at 107.40

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 92.40

Sept EC: reverses intermediate trend to pos on a close above 141.44 or confirms downside bias on a close below 141.44.

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 89.10

Sept BP: pos with support at 162.88

Sept ES: pos with support at 912.50

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1476

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8435

Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 928.50

Sept Silver: pos with support at 13.05

Sept Copper: pos with support at 233.50

Aug crude: potential reversal day. Has to close above 62.25 to flip higher.

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.076

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.45

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 117.13

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International Markets

Sept Bund: neg with res at 121.90

Sept Dax: pos with support at 4905

NKD: pos with support at 9341

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.