The economy continues to shed jobs at a slower pace

Top Day Rec

07.23.09

The light week continues with initial jobless claims at 8:30. (The economy continues to shed jobs albeit at a slower pace. Unemployment is a lagging indicator until you lose yours.) Then existing home sales later. Earnings reports continue with Ford losing less than expected. Other than that, volume remains light and markets seem to be wandering around. Meandering.

Jul 20	10:00	Leading Indicators	Jun		0.5%	0.5%	1.2%
Jul 22	10:30	Crude Inventories	07/17		NA	NA	-2.81M
Jul 23	08:30	Initial Claims	07/18		540K	NA	522K
Jul 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Jun		4.85M	4.80M	4.77M
Jul 24	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Jul		64.5	64.6	64.6

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos but slightly below daily support of 106.05    

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 93.10

Sept EC: neg with res at 142.72  

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 90.38

Sept BP:  pos with support at 163.44      

Sept ES: pos with support at 936.50     

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1544        

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8793 

Aug Gold: pos with support at 945.50    

Sept Silver: pos with support at 13.44

Sept Copper: pos with support at 245.00

Sept crude: pos with support at 64.20.     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.23

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.32

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 117.23        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.70

Sept Dax: pos and above daily res of 5063

NKD: pos with support at 9718

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.