Big rally yesterday on the back of better existing home sales

Top Day Rec

07.24.09

The light news week concludes with Michigan Consumer Sentiment which should come in around 65 according to consensus.

Overnight, UK projected Q2 GDP disappoints taking the Pound lower while German Purchasing Manager’s Index comes in better than expected.

Big rally yesterday into the previous highs of the year on the back of better existing home sales. Microsoft earnings came in lower than expected last night but the market was able to shake this off overnight, so far. Of course, the market is short term overbought and yesterday’s technical action at least suggests a deceleration in the advance and could presage topping action. Candles show a rejection of higher value. More time needs to build into the chart, however before you can hang your hat on a top.        

 

Jul 20	10:00	Leading Indicators	Jun		0.5%	0.5%	1.2%
Jul 22	10:30	Crude Inventories	07/17		NA	NA	-2.81M
Jul 23	08:30	Initial Claims	07/18		540K	NA	522K
Jul 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Jun		4.85M	4.80M	4.77M
Jul 24	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Jul		64.5	64.6	64.6

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 104.45    

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 92.66

Sept EC: neg with res at 142.61  

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 90.38

Sept BP:  pos with support at 163.50      

Sept ES: pos with support at 953.00     

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1558      

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8840 

Aug Gold: pos with support at 944.70    

Sept Silver: pos with support at 13.65

Sept Copper: pos with support at 248.00

Sept crude: pos with support at 65.20.     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.42

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.40

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 117.07        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 119.80

Sept Dax: pos with support at 5143

NKD: pos with support at 9976

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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