Weaker British retail sales are part of a stronger dollar futures today

Top Day Rec

07.28.09

Yesterday, an improvement in New Home sales failed to get much going. Overnight, markets are trimming gains. Weaker British retail sales are part of a stronger dollar picture this morning with Yen up 70 on risk aversion. Gold lower by $5 on risk aversion as well.

Case Schiller on housing activity is out this morning at 9:00 am with consumer confidence to follow then the Richmond Fed. Also, there’s another treasury auction at 1 PM.

 

Jul 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Jun

NA

352K

342K

Jul 28

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Jul

NA

48.7

49.3

Jul 28

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

May

NA

-17.80%

-18.12%

Jul 29

08:30

Durable Orders

Jun

NA

-0.5%

1.8%

Jul 29

08:30

Durables, Ex Transportation

Jun

NA

0.1%

1.1%

Jul 29

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/24

NA

NA

-1.80M

Jul 29

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jul 30

08:30

Initial Claims

07/25

NA

585K

554K

Jul 31

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q2

NA

-1.5%

-5.5%

Jul 31

08:30

Core PCE

Q2

NA

2.4%

1.6%

Jul 31

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q2

NA

1.0%

2.8%

Jul 31

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q2

NA

0.3%

0.3%

Jul 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jul

NA

42.0

39.9

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 104.85    

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 93.15

Sept EC: neg with res at 143.05  

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 92.07

Sept BP:  pos with support at 164.12      

Sept ES: pos with support at 962.50. Doji yesterday to be followed by a lower close?  Probable.

      

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1582       

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8935 

Aug Gold: pos with support at 941.40  

Sept Silver: pos with support at 13.79

Sept Copper: pos with support at 251.50

Sept crude: pos with support at 66.95.     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.276

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.29

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 116.28        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos  with support at 120.02  

Sept Dax: potential reversal day (neg)

NKD: pos with support at 100.05

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.