Copper showing an increase in inventories for two consecutive weeks

Top Day Rec

07.29.09

A potentially interesting day with Durable Goods , oil inventories and the Fed’s Beige Book all potentially market moving. Overnight, there was talk about copper showing an increase in inventories for two consecutive weeks at the LME which may suggest that Chinese buying has run its current course.

Yesterday’s treasury auction didn’t come off as well as hoped and consumer confidence triggered equity selling.

Case Schiller showed some signs of home price stability.

 

Jul 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Jun

NA

352K

342K

Jul 28

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Jul

NA

48.7

49.3

Jul 28

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

May

NA

-17.80%

-18.12%

Jul 29

08:30

Durable Orders

Jun

NA

-0.5%

1.8%

Jul 29

08:30

Durables, Ex Transportation

Jun

NA

0.1%

1.1%

Jul 29

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/24

NA

NA

-1.80M

Jul 29

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jul 30

08:30

Initial Claims

07/25

NA

585K

554K

Jul 31

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q2

NA

-1.5%

-5.5%

Jul 31

08:30

Core PCE

Q2

NA

2.4%

1.6%

Jul 31

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q2

NA

1.0%

2.8%

Jul 31

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q2

NA

0.3%

0.3%

Jul 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jul

NA

42.0

39.9

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 105.22    

Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.96

Sept EC: neg with res at 142.78  

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 91.70

Sept BP:  pos with support at 163.64      

Sept ES: pos with support at 959.00. Another Doji yesterday indicating potential topping action but long shadows created by the afternoon snap back rallies suggest caution.   

       

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1586      

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8978 

Aug Gold: pos with support at 930  

Sept Silver: pos with support at 13.29

Sept Copper: pos with support at 245.50. Mini trend reversal on the 28^th with lower high/lower low. Then followed by a low close doji flips the market over, however.      

 

 

Sept crude: pos with support at 65.15     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.374

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.24

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 116.19        

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos  with support at 120.17  

Sept Dax: neg with res at 5357

NKD: pos with support at 9973

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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