Markets rebound from yesterday's dollar strength

Top Day Rec

07.30.09

Overnight, markets rebound from yesterday’s dollar strength. Volume in equities was very light yesterday which enabled the market to close near the top end of the range on a negative day.

Just weekly jobless claims today.  

German consumer confidence came in better than expected. Concerns over German banking system boosts British into resistance.   

Jul 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Jun

NA

352K

342K

Jul 28

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Jul

NA

48.7

49.3

Jul 28

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

May

NA

-17.80%

-18.12%

Jul 29

08:30

Durable Orders

Jun

NA

-0.5%

1.8%

Jul 29

08:30

Durables, Ex Transportation

Jun

NA

0.1%

1.1%

Jul 29

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/24

NA

NA

-1.80M

Jul 29

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jul 30

08:30

Initial Claims

07/25

NA

585K

554K

Jul 31

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q2

NA

-1.5%

-5.5%

Jul 31

08:30

Core PCE

Q2

NA

2.4%

1.6%

Jul 31

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q2

NA

1.0%

2.8%

Jul 31

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q2

NA

0.3%

0.3%

Jul 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jul

NA

42.0

39.9

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 104.70 (failed to benefit yesterday from risk aversion and stronger dollar)    

Sept Swiss: potential reversal day (down)

Sept EC: potential reversal day

Sept Canadian: potential reversal day

Sept BP:  ditto      

Sept ES: potential reversal day. On decline days, lower shadows on snap back rallies show the market’s reluctance to roll over.  Potential formation of an evening star.

       

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1588     

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 8985

Aug Gold: potential reversal day    

Sept Silver: ditto

Sept Copper: potential reversal day

Sept crude: potential reversal day     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.48

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.24

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 116.16      

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos  with support at 120.33

Sept Dax: neg with res at 5340

NKD: pos with support at 100.95

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.