Stock Futures continued higher yesterday but with less volume

Top Day Rec

07.31.09

Advance Q2 GDP the big number of the day, followed by Chicago area purchasing managers’ report. Stocks continued higher yesterday with a fundamental flaw. The problem is volume. With high frequency trading accounting for more than 42% of the volume, volume is contracting with prices rallying. High frequency volume from trades seeking a fraction of a cent as an objective isn’t good volume.

 

 

Jul 27

10:00

New Home Sales

Jun

NA

352K

342K

Jul 28

09:00

Consumer Confidence

Jul

NA

48.7

49.3

Jul 28

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

May

NA

-17.80%

-18.12%

Jul 29

08:30

Durable Orders

Jun

NA

-0.5%

1.8%

Jul 29

08:30

Durables, Ex Transportation

Jun

NA

0.1%

1.1%

Jul 29

10:30

Crude Inventories

07/24

NA

NA

-1.80M

Jul 29

14:00

Fed's Beige Book

Jul 30

08:30

Initial Claims

07/25

NA

585K

554K

Jul 31

08:30

GDP-Adv.

Q2

NA

-1.5%

-5.5%

Jul 31

08:30

Core PCE

Q2

NA

2.4%

1.6%

Jul 31

08:30

Chain Deflator-Adv.

Q2

NA

1.0%

2.8%

Jul 31

08:30

Employment Cost Index

Q2

NA

0.3%

0.3%

Jul 31

09:45

Chicago PMI

Jul

NA

42.0

39.9

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: potential reversal day

Sept Swiss: neg with res at 92.70

Sept EC: neg with res at 141.50

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 91.80

Sept BP:  pos with support at 164.10      

Sept ES: pos with support at 972.50       

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1593     

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 9017

Dec Gold: pos with support at 927.50    

Sept Silver: pos with support at 13.30

Sept Copper: pos with support at 249.50

Sept crude: pos with support at 64.05     

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.99

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.25

Sept Ten Year: neg with res at 116.31      

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.33

Sept Dax: potential reversal day

NKD: pos with support at 100.95

 

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.