FOMC communique at 2:15, crude inventories at 10:30

Top Day Rec

08.12.09

Everyone is going to be sitting on the FOMC communiqué at 2:15 pm so expect, halting, and indecisive trading ahead of this. Observers are wondering if the Fed will mention improving business activity and/or a continuation or halt to buying their own debt. Crude inventories at 10:30.

Check out ichimokucharts.com. He updates them about 1 AM.

Aug 11	08:30	Productivity-Prel	Q2	5.2%	5.4%	1.6%
Aug 11	08:30	Unit Labor Costs	Q2	-2.2%	-2.4%	3.0%
Aug 11	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Jun	-0.9%	-0.9%	-0.8%
Aug 12	08:30	Trade Balance	Jun	-$31.0B	-$28.5B	-$26.0B
Aug 12	10:30	Crude Inventories	08/07	NA	NA	+1.67M
Aug 12	14:00	Treasury Budget	Jul	NA	-$180.0B	NA
Aug 12	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision				0.00%-0.25%
Aug 13	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Jul	NA	NA	0.8%
Aug 13	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Jul	NA	NA	0.2%
Aug 13	08:30	Initial Claims	08/08	540K	545K	550K
Aug 13	08:30	Retail Sales	Jul	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%
Aug 13	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jul	0.3%	0.1%	0.3%
Aug 13	10:00	Business Inventories	Jun	-0.9%	-0.9%	-1.0%
Aug 14	08:30	Core CPI	Jul	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
Aug 14	08:30	CPI	Jul	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%
Aug 14	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Jul	68.5%	68.4%	68.0%
Aug 14	09:15	Industrial Production	Jul	0.5%	0.4%	-0.4%
Aug 14	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Aug	70.0	69.0	66.0

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Sept Yen: pos with support at 103.55

Sept Swiss: neg with res at 93.05

Sept EC: neg with res at 142.00

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 91.70

Sept BP: neg with res at 165.30

Sept ES: pos with support at 985.00

Sept NQ: potential reversal day

Sept Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Dec Gold: neg with res at 952

Sept Silver: potential reversal day

Sept Copper: potential reversal day

Sept crude: neg with res at 70.80

Nov Soybeans: pos with support 10.15

Sept Wheat: neg with res at 4.95

Sept Ten Year: potential reversal day

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 120.12

Sept Dax: neg with res at 5407

NKD: potential reversal day

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.