Markets are lower on carry over selling from Friday

Top Day Rec

08.17.09

 

It may be Monday but there’s more than enough to consider. Overnight, markets are lower on carry over selling from Friday which was triggered by lower than expected retails and a poor reading on consumer confidence. Lowe’s stated a contracting in sales by 9.5%. The only items that are green on the board this morning are the Yen and bonds on risk aversion. Japan’s economy expended but missed questimates.   

Aug 17 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Aug   5.00 2.20 -0.55   Aug 17 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jun   NA $17.5B -$19.8B   Aug 18 08:30 Building Permits Jul   565K 576K 570K   Aug 18 08:30 Core PPI Jul   0.1% 0.1% 0.5%   Aug 18 08:30 Housing Starts Jul   580K 598K 582K   Aug 18 08:30 PPI Jul   -0.2% -0.2% 1.8%   Aug 19 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/14   NA NA +2.52M   Aug 20 08:30 Initial Claims 08/15   550K 553K 558K   Aug 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul   0.6% 0.6% 0.7%   Aug 20 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug   1.0 -2.0 -7.5   Aug 21 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul   5.10M 5.00M 4.89M

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 104.80

Sept Swiss: pos but below daily support of 92.55  

Sept EC: positive with support at 140.65  

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 91.95

Sept BP:  pos but below daily support of 164.00         

Sept ES: pos with support at 981.00

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1575  

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 9105

Dec Gold: neg with res at 951      

Sept Silver: pos but below daily support of 14.23

Sept Copper: pos with support at 274  

Sept crude: neg with res at 70.30      

Nov Soybeans: possible reversal day  

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.15

Sept Ten Year:  pos with support at 116.24   

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 121.28

Sept Dax:  neg with res at 5408

NKD: potential reversal day  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.