Better than expected German Consumer Confidence helping the stock futures

Top Day Rec

08.18.09

A slight rebound overnight helped along by better than expected German consumer confidence. Several data points out at 8:30 including building permits and housing starts along with the Producer Price Index. September crude expires this week so look for volatility.

Aug 17	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Aug	5.00	2.20	-0.55
Aug 17	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Jun	NA	$17.5B	-$19.8B
Aug 18	08:30	Building Permits	Jul	565K	576K	570K
Aug 18	08:30	Core PPI	Jul	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%
Aug 18	08:30	Housing Starts	Jul	580K	598K	582K
Aug 18	08:30	PPI	Jul	-0.2%	-0.2%	1.8%
Aug 19	10:30	Crude Inventories	08/14	NA	NA	+2.52M
Aug 20	08:30	Initial Claims	08/15	550K	553K	558K
Aug 20	10:00	Leading Indicators	Jul	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%
Aug 20	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Aug	1.0	-2.0	-7.5
Aug 21	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Jul	5.10M	5.00M	4.89M

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Sept Yen: pos with support at 105.05

Sept Swiss: potential reversal day

Sept EC: potential reversal day

Sept Canadian: neg with res at 91.02

Sept BP: neg with res at 164.80

Sept ES: possible reversal day

Sept NQ: possible reversal day

Sept Mini Dow: potential reversal day

Dec Gold: neg with res at 947

Sept Silver: potential reversal day

Sept Copper: potential reversal day

Sept crude: neg with res at 67.88

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.775

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 5.08

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 117.08

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 121.75

Sept Dax: neg with res at 5288

NKD: neg with res at 103.00

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

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