Initial jobless claims and Q2 GDP out today

Top Day Rec

08.27.09

Initial jobless claims and the preliminary reading of Q2 Gross Domestic Product are the features of the day. Volume continues to lag. Trading conditions feel like the trading week between Christmas and New Years.

No revision to Q2 GDP. There had been some front running believing that there would be a better number than this. 10K drop in weekly claims.

Again, trading ranges should hold.

Aug 25

09:00

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Jun

-17.0%

-16.40%

-17.06%

Aug 25

10:00

Consumer Confidence

Aug

48.0

46.6

Aug 26

08:30

Durable Orders

Jul

2.8%

3.2%

-2.5%

Aug 26

08:30

Durables, Ex Transportation

Jul

0.4%

1.0%

1.1%

Aug 26

10:00

New Home Sales

Jul

308K

390K

384K

Aug 26

10:30

Crude Inventories

08/21

-8.40M

Aug 27

08:30

Initial Claims

08/22

550K

565K

576K

Aug 27

08:30

Q2 GDP - Prelim

-1.6%

-1.4%

-1.0%

Aug 27

08:30

GDP Deflator

0.2%

Aug 27

08:30

Core PCE

2.0%

Aug 28

08:30

Personal Income

Jul

-0.1%

0.1%

-1.3%

Aug 28

08:30

Personal Spending

Jul

0.3%

0.2%

0.4%

Aug 28

08:30

PCE Core

Jul

0.1%

0.2%

Aug 28

09:55

Mich Sentiment-Rev

Aug

64.8

63.2

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Sept Yen: potential reversal day

Sept Swiss: positive with support at 93.08

Sept EC: positive with support at 141.80

Sept Canadian: pos with support of 90.50

Sept BP: neg with res at 163.30

Sept ES: pos with support at 1015.00

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1616.00

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 9425

Dec Gold: neg with res at 956.70

Sept Silver: neg with res at 14.42

Sept Copper: pos with support at 281.70

Oct Crude: res at 72.40

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.16s

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.995

Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 117.18

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International Markets

Sept Bund: pos with support at 122.05

Sept Dax: pos with support at 5460

NKD: support 10530

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.