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September unfriendly to the stock market again?Top Day Rec 09.02.09 ADP private survey of the employment picture is always an interesting prologue to Friday’s unemployment report. It came in slightly worse than expected at -298 versus an expected -250. September has often been unkind to the stock market and yesterday’s trade proved consistent. Mini Dow projects to 846.00 based on Fib retracements.
Current views, speculations and suggestions (good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.
Sept Yen: pos with support at 107.16 Sept Swiss: positive with support at 93.20 Sept EC: positive with support at 141.40 Sept Canadian: neg with res at 91.50 Sept BP: neg with res at 163.20 Sept ES: neg with res at 1017 Sept NQ: potential reversal day Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 9470 (see above) Dec Gold: neg with res at 961.50 Dec Silver: pos with support at 14.76 Dec Copper: potential reversal day Oct Crude: neg with res at 70.50 Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.794 Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.795 Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 116.30 ************** International Markets Dec Bund: pos with support at 120.90 Sept Dax: potential reversal day NKD: potential; reversal day *********** N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half. ********************************************
Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Charles Kespert
*********************** HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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