Consumers paying down debts at record rates, consumptions down too

Top Day Rec

09.09.09

Beige book at 2pm should be the highlight of the day. There’s no consensus as to what exactly they will say about the current status of the economy. A huge drop in consumer debt suggests that the public is not spending and at the same time paying down debt at record rates. The President is to talk about health care reform at 8pm. Traffic a bit thicker today going into the city. Maybe summer is actually over.

     

Sep 08	15:00	Consumer Credit	Jul		-8.5B	-4.0B	-10.3B
Sep 09	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/04		NA	NA	-372K
Sep 09	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Sep 10	08:30	Initial Claims	09/05		-565K	560K	570K
Sep 10	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/29		6150K	6200K	6234K
Sep 10	08:30	Trade Balance	Jul		-25.5B	-27.4B	-27.0B
Sep 11	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Aug		NA	NA	0.2%
Sep 11	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Aug		NA	NA	-0.2%
Sep 11	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Sep		69.0	67.8	65.7
Sep 11	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Jul		-1.4%	-1.0%	-1.7%
Sep 11	14:00	Treasury Budget	Aug		-168.0B	-162.0B	-111.9B

 

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Sept Yen: pos with support at 107.46  

Sept Swiss: positive with support at 94.56    

Sept EC: positive with support at 143.50  

Sept Canadian: pos with support at 91.76

Sept BP:  pos with support at 163.60        

Sept ES: pos with support at 1015

Sept NQ: pos with support at 1640  

Sept Mini Dow: pos with support at 9422

Dec Gold: pos with support at 991.70

Dec Silver: pos with support at 16.17  

Dec Copper: pos with support at 287.50

Oct Crude: neg with res at 72.70      

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.49

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.63

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 116.17   

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 120.70

Sept Dax:  pos with support at 5456

NKD:  neg with res at 10345  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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 Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.