Imposition of tariffs between the US and China possible derailment of economic recovery?

Top Day Rec

09.14.09

Chicken, auto parts and tires are the commodities at the center of a trade dispute between the US and China. Claims of unfair trade practices (dumping of goods) have led to the imposition of tariffs which in turn could lead to derailing the economic recovery both here and abroad. Consequently, equities are lower and the dollar is higher on taking back of risk trades.

The President is due to talk today in NY from the steps of the Federal Building on the anniversary of the Lehman demise.

Sep 15	08:30	Core PPI	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 15	08:30	PPI	Aug	1.0%	0.8%	-0.9%
Sep 15	08:30	Retail Sales	Aug	2.1%	1.9%	-0.1%
Sep 15	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Aug	0.1%	0.4%	-0.6%
Sep 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Sep	13.00	15.00	12.08
Sep 15	10:00	Business Inventories	Jul	-1.2%	-0.8%	-1.1%
Sep 16	08:30	Core CPI	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 16	08:30	CPI	Aug	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Sep 16	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Jul	NA	NA	-31.2B
Sep 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Aug	69.6%	69.1%	68.5%
Sep 16	09:15	Industrial Production	Aug	1.0%	0.7%	0.5%
Sep 16	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/11	NA	NA	-5.91M
Sep 17	08:30	Building Permits	Aug	575K	596K	564K
Sep 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Aug	570K	580K	581K
Sep 17	08:30	Initial Claims	09/12	565K	555K	550K
Sep 17	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/05	6000K	6114K	6088K
Sep 17	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Sep	10.0	8.0	4.2

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Sept currencies expire early today. Be out now.

Dec Yen: pos with support at 109.36

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 95.95

Dec EC: positive with support at 145.10

Dec Canadian: pos but below daily support of 92.27

Dec BP: pos but below daily support of 165.90

Dec ES: pos with support at 1028

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1664.50

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9465

Dec Gold: pos with support at 988.00

Dec Silver: pos with support at 16.42

Dec Copper: neg with res at 290.00

Oct Crude: neg with res at 71.85

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.24

Dec Wheat: potential reversal day

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 117.19

**************

International Markets

Dec Bund: potential reversal day

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5578

NKD: pos but below daily support of 10320

***********

N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

********************************************

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Charles Kespert

***********************

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Futures Trading Systems