Bank of England is considering lowering rates

Top Day Rec

09.15.09

Retail sales is forecast to come in at a better than expected number due to “cash for clunkers.” German consumer confidence came in at a 3 year high. The Bank of England is considering lowering rates on reserves which creates money flow out of the currency based on interest rate differentials.

Sep 15	08:30	Core PPI	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 15	08:30	PPI	Aug	1.0%	0.8%	-0.9%
Sep 15	08:30	Retail Sales	Aug	2.1%	1.9%	-0.1%
Sep 15	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Aug	0.1%	0.4%	-0.6%
Sep 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Sep	13.00	15.00	12.08
Sep 15	10:00	Business Inventories	Jul	-1.2%	-0.8%	-1.1%
Sep 16	08:30	Core CPI	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 16	08:30	CPI	Aug	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Sep 16	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Jul	NA	NA	-31.2B
Sep 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Aug	69.6%	69.1%	68.5%
Sep 16	09:15	Industrial Production	Aug	1.0%	0.7%	0.5%
Sep 16	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/11	NA	NA	-5.91M
Sep 17	08:30	Building Permits	Aug	575K	596K	564K
Sep 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Aug	570K	580K	581K
Sep 17	08:30	Initial Claims	09/12	565K	555K	550K
Sep 17	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/05	6000K	6114K	6088K
Sep 17	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Sep	10.0	8.0	4.2

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: pos with support at 109.12

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.15

Dec EC: positive with support at 145.34

Dec Canadian: pos but below daily support of 91.54

Dec BP: pos with support at 164.45

Dec ES: pos with support at 1031

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1671.50

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9465

Dec Gold: pos with support at 994.00

Dec Silver: potential reversal day

Dec Copper: neg with res at 283.50

Oct Crude: neg with res at 70.28

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.21

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.60

Dec Ten Year: pos with support at 116.31

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos but below daily support of 121.12

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5555

NKD: pos but below daily support of 10150

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

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