Weekly unemployment claims down 12k

Top Day Rec

09.17.09

Housing Starts +1.5%. Weekly Unemployment claims down 12K. Both pretty much as expected. Upward revision in continuing claims. Philly Fed and its anecdotal evidence of business activity in that theater at 10.00. That’s it for the week in terms of eco data points.

Swiss N.B. leaves short term rates unchanged but continue to maintain their desire to fight appreciation versus the EC.

British retail sales flat. Failure to take out a 61% retracement from H to L opens up a test of 163.45

Stocks continue to grind higher on decreasing volume. Chart below is of a weekly time period.

EC has been under accumulation 9 days in a row with RSI approach 70+

Sep 15	08:30	Core PPI	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1%
Sep 15	08:30	PPI	Aug	1.0%	0.8%	-0.9%
Sep 15	08:30	Retail Sales	Aug	2.1%	1.9%	-0.1%
Sep 15	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Aug	0.1%	0.4%	-0.6%
Sep 15	08:30	Empire Manufacturing	Sep	13.00	15.00	12.08
Sep 15	10:00	Business Inventories	Jul	-1.2%	-0.8%	-1.1%
Sep 16	08:30	Core CPI	Aug	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%
Sep 16	08:30	CPI	Aug	0.2%	0.3%	0.0%
Sep 16	09:00	Net Long-term TIC Flows	Jul	NA	NA	-31.2B
Sep 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Aug	69.6%	69.1%	68.5%
Sep 16	09:15	Industrial Production	Aug	1.0%	0.7%	0.5%
Sep 16	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/11	NA	NA	-5.91M
Sep 17	08:30	Building Permits	Aug	575K	596K	564K
Sep 17	08:30	Housing Starts	Aug	570K	580K	581K
Sep 17	08:30	Initial Claims	09/12	565K	555K	550K
Sep 17	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/05	6000K	6114K	6088K
Sep 17	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Sep	10.0	8.0	4.2

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: pos with support at 108.67

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.25

Dec EC: positive with support at 146.04.

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 92.90

Dec BP: pos with res at 165.90

Dec ES: pos with support at 1038

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1682

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9540

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1001.70

Dec Silver: pos with support at 16.80

Dec Copper: potential reversal day

Oct Crude: potential reversal day

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.64

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.75

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 117.17

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International Markets

Dec Bund: neg with res at 121.20

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5650

NKD: pos but below daily support of 10306

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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