Oil inventories and the FOMC rate decision at 2:15 pm

Top Day Rec

09.23.09

Oil inventories and the FOMC rate decision at 2:15. It’s widely expected that short term rates remain unchanged. Many expect optimistic language in the communiqué. Still, it’s best to get out of the way of these events. G-20 meets tomorrow in Pittsburgh.

Overnight, oil is slightly lower on ideas that distillate inventories will remain at 26 year highs. BP slightly higher on crosses against the EC and the idea that the BOE will not increase purchases of its own debt. Lower shipping rates in China.

    

Sep 21	10:00	Leading Indicators	Aug		NA	0.7%	0.6%
Sep 22	10:00	FHFA US Housing Price Index	Jul		NA	0.5%	0.5%
Sep 23	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/18		NA	NA	-4.73M
Sep 23	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	Sep		NA	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 24	08:30	Initial Claims	09/19		NA	NA	NA
Sep 24	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/12		NA	NA	NA
Sep 24	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Aug		NA	5.33M	5.24M
Sep 25	08:30	Durable Orders	Aug		NA	0.1%	5.1%
Sep 25	08:30	Durables, ex Transpiration	Aug		NA	0.8%	1.1%
Sep 25	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Sep		NA	70.0	70.2
Sep 25	10:00	New Home Sales	Aug		NA	440K	433K

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 110.20     

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 97.10    

Dec EC: positive with support at 146.15.  

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 92.90

Dec BP:  neg with res at 164.80         

Dec ES: pos with support at 1061.00  

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1726.00 (in its 13^th day of accumulation).  

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9723

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1023

Dec Silver: neg with res at 17.36    

Dec Copper: potential reversal day but failing

Nov Crude: res at 72.60       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.31

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.62

Dec Ten Year:  neg with res at 117.09   

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International Markets

Dec Bund: potential reversal day   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5744

Dec NKD pos with support at 104.40

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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