Gold continues to trade upside while crude oil got whipsawed

Top Day Rec

09.24.09

Just Continuing Jobless Claims at 8:30 and Existing Home Sales at 10. (Claims dropped by 21K with an upward revision the previous week).

Yesterday, the FOMC communiqué tried a positive spin but ultimately the US economy is not strong enough for them to remove stimulus measures. There was a significant price rejection at 1075 in the S+P. Oil saw distillate inventories remain at multi year highs and prices cratered. Gold continues to trade more as a currency than as a barometer of inflationary pressures or lack thereof.   

G-20 convenes in Pittsburgh over the weekend but it’s not expected that they will specifically address currency levels.  

    

Sep 21	10:00	Leading Indicators	Aug		NA	0.7%	0.6%
Sep 22	10:00	FHFA US Housing Price Index	Jul		NA	0.5%	0.5%
Sep 23	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/18		NA	NA	-4.73M
Sep 23	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	Sep		NA	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 24	08:30	Initial Claims	09/19		NA	NA	NA
Sep 24	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/12		NA	NA	NA
Sep 24	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Aug		NA	5.33M	5.24M
Sep 25	08:30	Durable Orders	Aug		NA	0.1%	5.1%
Sep 25	08:30	Durables, ex Transpiration	Aug		NA	0.8%	1.1%
Sep 25	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Sep		NA	70.0	70.2
Sep 25	10:00	New Home Sales	Aug		NA	440K	433K

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.15     

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 97.08    

Dec EC: positive with support at 146.71.  

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 92.95

Dec BP:  neg with res at 164.00         

Dec ES: pos with support at 1051.00  

Dec NQ: pos with support at 1713.00   

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support at 9645

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1021

Dec Silver: neg with res at 17.22    

Dec Copper: neg with res at 287

Nov Crude: res at 71.10       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.30

Dec Wheat: neg with res at 4.68

Dec Ten Year:  potential reversal day   

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 120.00   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5744

Dec NKD potential reversal day

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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