Further revelations concerning Iran's nuclear program hot issue while lower than expected existing home sales pushing the equity market lower

Top Day Rec

09.25.09

A fairly busy Friday with Durable Goods, Michigan Consumer Sentiment and New Home Sales. Yesterday’s number for Existing Home sales at an annualized rate of 5.1 million was below expectation and was a trigger for lower equities. Crude oil continues to process a glut of supply while the hot issue overnight was further revelations concerning Iran’s nuclear program. At 8:30, the President, Sarkozy of France and Brown of Britain will hold a joint press conference and will ask that the IEA conduct a thorough investigation of Iran’s nuclear program.   

    

Sep 21	10:00	Leading Indicators	Aug		NA	0.7%	0.6%
Sep 22	10:00	FHFA US Housing Price Index	Jul		NA	0.5%	0.5%
Sep 23	10:30	Crude Inventories	09/18		NA	NA	-4.73M
Sep 23	14:15	FOMC Rate Decision	Sep		NA	0.25%	0.25%
Sep 24	08:30	Initial Claims	09/19		NA	NA	NA
Sep 24	08:30	Continuing Claims	09/12		NA	NA	NA
Sep 24	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Aug		NA	5.33M	5.24M
Sep 25	08:30	Durable Orders	Aug		NA	0.1%	5.1%
Sep 25	08:30	Durables, ex Transpiration	Aug		NA	0.8%	1.1%
Sep 25	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Sep		NA	70.0	70.2
Sep 25	10:00	New Home Sales	Aug		NA	440K	433K

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.39     

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.68    

Dec EC: positive with support at 145.86.  

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day (lower)

Dec BP:  neg with res at 162.90 (even the BOE welcomes a lower Sterling). Really getting crossed against the EC. Look at this weekly chart:

        

Dec ES: potential reversal day (lower)  

Dec NQ: potential reversal day    

Dec Mini Dow: potential reversal day  

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1016

Dec Silver: neg with res at 16.83    

Dec Copper: neg with res at 278

Nov Crude: res at 67.90       

Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 9.31

Dec Wheat: potential reversal day (higher)

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 117.10   

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 120.78   

Dec Dax:  neg with res at 5709

Dec NKD pos with support at 1024

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.