The perception of better world economic performance lifts equity and crude futures

Top Day Rec

10.12.09

The holiday that isn’t. No banks. No mail. No data points until the 14^th. Overnight, the perception of better world economic performance lifts equities and crude. A lack of serious sellers today, being a “holiday”, allows stocks to lift higher. BP continues to tilt lower.

Oct 14	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Sep	NA	NA	0.8%
Oct 14	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Sep	NA	NA	0.4%
Oct 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Sep	-2.7%	-2.1%	2.7%
Oct 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Sep	-0.3%	0.2%	1.1%
Oct 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Aug	-1.2%	-0.9%	-1.0%
Oct 14	14:00	FOMC Minutes	Sep
Oct 15	08:30	Initial Claims	10/10	540K	525K	521K
Oct 15	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/03	6000K	6060K	6040K
Oct 15	08:30	Core CPI	Sep	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 15	08:30	CPI	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Oct 15	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Oct	13.5	12.3	14.1
Oct 15	13:00	Crude Inventories	10/09			-0.98M
Oct 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Aug	NA	NA	15.3B
Oct 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Sep	70.1%	69.7%	69.6%
Oct 16	09:15	Industrial Production	Sep	0.4%	0.1%	0.8%
Oct 16	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Oct	74.0	73.5	73.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: pos with support at 110.01

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.50

Dec EC: pos with support at 146.55

Dec Canadian: pos with res at 95.55 (economy adds jobs)

Dec BP: neg with res at 159.95

Dec ES: pos with support at 1061.50

Dec NQ: pos with support 1712.00

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 9737

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1043.30

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.55

Dec Copper: pos with support at 281.00

Nov Crude: res at 73.30

Nov Soybeans: pos with support at 9.40

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.67

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 119.00

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.72

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5712

Dec NKD pos with support at 1004.50

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

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