German consumer confidence drops, gold traded higher into 1068

Top Day Rec

10.13.09

Another day that’s open in terms of eco releases. German consumer confidence drops. Gold traded higher into nominal resistance at 1068.00. Equities are flat. Crude is higher on dollar weakness. British continues to get crossed against the EC (chart below).

Oct 14	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Sep	NA	NA	0.8%
Oct 14	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Sep	NA	NA	0.4%
Oct 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Sep	-2.7%	-2.1%	2.7%
Oct 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Sep	-0.3%	0.2%	1.1%
Oct 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Aug	-1.2%	-0.9%	-1.0%
Oct 14	14:00	FOMC Minutes	Sep
Oct 15	08:30	Initial Claims	10/10	540K	525K	521K
Oct 15	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/03	6000K	6060K	6040K
Oct 15	08:30	Core CPI	Sep	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 15	08:30	CPI	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Oct 15	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Oct	13.5	12.3	14.1
Oct 15	13:00	Crude Inventories	10/09			-0.98M
Oct 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Aug	NA	NA	15.3B
Oct 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Sep	70.1%	69.7%	69.6%
Oct 16	09:15	Industrial Production	Sep	0.4%	0.1%	0.8%
Oct 16	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Oct	74.0	73.5	73.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: potential reversal day

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 96.85

Dec EC: pos with support at 147.05

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 95.92

Dec BP: neg with res at 159.50

Dec ES: pos with support at 1066.50

Dec NQ: pos with support 1716.00

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 9782

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1051.00

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.69

Dec Copper: pos with support at 282.00

Dec Crude: res at 75.25

Nov Soybeans: pos with support at 9.73

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.73

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 119.04

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support at 121.90

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5735

Dec NKD pos with support at 106.30

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

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Charles Kespert

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