Gold trades to a new high and dollar weakens overnight again

Top Day Rec

10.14.09

Intel earnings surge and lifts the market overnight. Dollar weaknens, again. Gold trades to a new high and finally sees some profit taking. Crude will have to wait for supply/demand figures due to the holiday Monday. Bonds are lower on higher stocks.

Retail sales -1.5% but better than expected.

FOMC minutes out at 2:00 pm.

Oct 14	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Sep	NA	NA	0.8%
Oct 14	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Sep	NA	NA	0.4%
Oct 14	08:30	Retail Sales	Sep	-2.7%	-2.1%	2.7%
Oct 14	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Sep	-0.3%	0.2%	1.1%
Oct 14	10:00	Business Inventories	Aug	-1.2%	-0.9%	-1.0%
Oct 14	14:00	FOMC Minutes	Sep
Oct 15	08:30	Initial Claims	10/10	540K	525K	521K
Oct 15	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/03	6000K	6060K	6040K
Oct 15	08:30	Core CPI	Sep	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Oct 15	08:30	CPI	Sep	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Oct 15	10:00	Philadelphia Fed	Oct	13.5	12.3	14.1
Oct 15	13:00	Crude Inventories	10/09			-0.98M
Oct 16	09:00	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	Aug	NA	NA	15.3B
Oct 16	09:15	Capacity Utilization	Sep	70.1%	69.7%	69.6%
Oct 16	09:15	Industrial Production	Sep	0.4%	0.1%	0.8%
Oct 16	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Oct	74.0	73.5	73.5

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: res at 112.33

Dec Swiss: positive with support at 97.32

Dec EC: pos with support at 147.60

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 96.17

Dec BP: neg with res at 160.60

Dec ES: pos with support at 1068.75

Dec NQ: pos with support 1727.50

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 9805

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1045.00

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.57

Dec Copper: pos with support at 274.00

Dec Crude: pos with support at 73.70

Nov Soybeans: pos with support at 9.82

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 4.93

Dec Ten Year: potential reversal day

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos but below daily support of 122.03

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5737

Dec NKD pos with support at 100.26

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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