Caterpillar, Apple and Texas Instruments beat earnings estimate driving stock futures higher

Top Day Rec

10.20.09

Overnight, Caterpillar, Apple and Texas Instruments beat earnings estimate while the FTSE, Dax and CAC are all slightly higher. Crude is flat while gold continues higher.

Trading is being driven by earnings and momentum players. It’s best to leave your sense of “fair value” at the door and allow the numbers to do the talking.

Producer Price Index comes in soft as does building permits. Housing numbers disappoint but probably bottomed out in Q2.     

 

Oct 20	08:30	Building Permits	Sep		580K	590K	579K
Oct 20	08:30	Housing Starts	Sep		585K	610K	598K
Oct 20	08:30	PPI	Sep		0.0%	0.0%	1.7%
Oct 20	08:30	Core PPI	Sep		0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Oct 21	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/16		NA	NA	0.33M
Oct 21	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Oct 22	08:30	Initial Claims	10/17		525K	517K	514K
Oct 22	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/10		5950K	5990K	5992K
Oct 22	10:00	Leading Indicators	Sep		1.0%	0.9%	0.6%
Oct 22	10:00	FHFA Housing Price Index	AUG		0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Oct 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Sep		5.45M	5.35M	5.10M

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: neg with res at 111.18      

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 98.50      

Dec EC: pos with support at 149.11

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 96.33

Dec BP:  pos with support at 163.40   

Dec ES: pos with support at 1081.50. A 50% retracement would bring us to 1127.00

 

Dec NQ: pos with support 1719. A 61% retracement from high to low in the Nadaq would bring us to 1784.00

     

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 990.20. A 50% retracement takes us to 10,368

 

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1042

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.30     

Dec Copper: pos with support at 285.00  

Dec Crude: pos with support at 77.90       

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 9.85  

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 5.02  

Dec Ten Year:  possible reversal day    

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos but below daily support of 121.15  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5791

Dec NKD pos with support at 102.13  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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