Markets seem to be catching their breath worldwide in front of oil inventories

Top Day Rec

10.21.09

Overnight, more corporate earnings with Wells and Morgan Stanley (amongst others) reporting. Europe is generally lower with the FTSE down 1.14, Dax down 1.07 and CAC down 1.52%. So, markets seem to be catching their breath, normalizing, (your adj goes here) in front of oil inventories and the Fed’s Beige book later in the day.

 

Oct 20	08:30	Building Permits	Sep		580K	590K	579K
Oct 20	08:30	Housing Starts	Sep		585K	610K	598K
Oct 20	08:30	PPI	Sep		0.0%	0.0%	1.7%
Oct 20	08:30	Core PPI	Sep		0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
Oct 21	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/16		NA	NA	0.33M
Oct 21	14:00	Fed's Beige Book
Oct 22	08:30	Initial Claims	10/17		525K	517K	514K
Oct 22	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/10		5950K	5990K	5992K
Oct 22	10:00	Leading Indicators	Sep		1.0%	0.9%	0.6%
Oct 22	10:00	FHFA Housing Price Index	AUG		0.3%	0.3%	0.3%
Oct 23	10:00	Existing Home Sales	Sep		5.45M	5.35M	5.10M

 

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

 

Dec Yen: pos with support at 109.73     

Dec Swiss: pos with support at 98.34      

Dec EC: pos with support at 148.72

Dec Canadian: pos with support at 94.30

Dec BP:  pos with support at 163.80   

Dec ES: pos with support at 1074.00. A 50% retracement would bring us to 1127.00

 

Dec NQ: pos with support 1728. A 61% retracement from high to low in the Nadaq would bring us to 1784.00

     

Dec Mini Dow: pos with support 987.00. A 50% retracement takes us to 10,368

 

Dec Gold: pos with support at 1041

Dec Silver: pos with support at 17.11     

Dec Copper: pos with support at 287.00  

Dec Crude: pos with support at 77.20       

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 9.67  

Dec Wheat: pos with support at 5.08  

Dec Ten Year:  pos with support at 117.25    

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos but below daily support of 120.92  

Dec Dax:  pos with support at 5724

Dec NKD pos with support at 101.85  

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

 

Charles Kespert

 

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ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.