Technical considerations should define trading today

Top Day Rec

10.26.09

No data points today. Net changes are not radically different than Friday’s close. Overnight, Jen Claude Trichet again tried talking down the EC, saying that the Ec was not designed to be the world’s reserve currency. Technical considerations should define trading today without the introduction of fresh news. Interest is focused on tomorrow’s Case Schiller for housing activity. Seems that there have been 74 thousand bogus claims for the 8K first time home buyers tax credit. Unbelievable. Fed Reserve Bank of Chicago index still indicates eco contraction.

Oct 27	09:00	CaseShiller Home Price Index	Aug	-13.0%	-11.90%	-13.30%
Oct 27	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Oct	52.6	53.5	53.1
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders	Sep	0.5%	1.0%	-2.4%
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders ex Transportation	Sep	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%
Oct 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Sep	450K	440K	429K
Oct 28	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/23	NA	NA	1.31M
Oct 29	08:30	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q3	1.3%	1.3%	0.0%
Oct 29	08:30	GDP-Adv.	Q3	2.5%	3.2%	-0.7%
Oct 29	08:30	Initial Claims	10/24	520K	525K	531K
Oct 29	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/17	5890K	5915K	5923K
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Income	Sep	-0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Spending	Sep	-0.7%	-0.5%	1.3%
Oct 30	08:30	PCE Prices	Sep	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Oct 30	08:30	Core PCE Prices	Sep	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Oct	51.0	48.7	46.1
Oct 30	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Oct	70.3	70.0	69.4
Oct 30	10:00	Employment Cost Index	Q3	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: neg with res at 109.25. Target for the day is 108.25

Dec Swiss: pos with res at 99.57

Dec EC: pos with support at 149.60 and res at 105.45

Dec Canadian: potential reversal day

Dec BP: pos with support at 161.70

Dec ES: pos with res at 1091 and support at 1068

A 50% retracement brings us up to 1127

Dec NQ: pos with res at 1771. A 61% retracement from high to low in the Nadaq would bring us to 1784.00

Dec Mini Dow: pos with daily res at 1003.80. A 50% retracement takes us to 10,368

Dec Gold: potential reversal day

Dec Silver: pos with res at 17.97

Dec Copper: pos with res at 309.50

Dec Crude: pos with res at 80.60 and support at 79.50

Jan Soybeans: pos with res at 10.23

Dec Wheat: pos with res at 5.38

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 117.28

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 120.67

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5701

Dec NKD pos with res at 104.31

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, AL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETIOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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