Consumer Confidence number out today, falling gold futures price driving a weaker dollar

Top Day Rec

10.26.09

Case-Shiller will attract interest today as it accurately pictures current activity in the housing sector in 20 metro areas. Consumer confidence coming out at the same time of day is capable of creating cross currents. Overnight, quiet with gold failing to respond to a weaker dollar. The market seems as soggy as the weather.

Oct 27	09:00	CaseShiller Home Price Index	Aug	-13.0%	-11.90%	-13.30%
Oct 27	09:00	Consumer Confidence	Oct	52.6	53.5	53.1
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders	Sep	0.5%	1.0%	-2.4%
Oct 28	08:30	Durable Orders ex Transportation	Sep	0.1%	0.7%	0.0%
Oct 28	10:00	New Home Sales	Sep	450K	440K	429K
Oct 28	10:30	Crude Inventories	10/23	NA	NA	1.31M
Oct 29	08:30	Chain Deflator-Adv.	Q3	1.3%	1.3%	0.0%
Oct 29	08:30	GDP-Adv.	Q3	2.5%	3.2%	-0.7%
Oct 29	08:30	Initial Claims	10/24	520K	525K	531K
Oct 29	08:30	Continuing Claims	10/17	5890K	5915K	5923K
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Income	Sep	-0.2%	0.0%	0.2%
Oct 30	08:30	Personal Spending	Sep	-0.7%	-0.5%	1.3%
Oct 30	08:30	PCE Prices	Sep	-0.5%	-0.5%	-0.5%
Oct 30	08:30	Core PCE Prices	Sep	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Oct 30	09:45	Chicago PMI	Oct	51.0	48.7	46.1
Oct 30	09:55	Mich Sentiment-Rev	Oct	70.3	70.0	69.4
Oct 30	10:00	Employment Cost Index	Q3	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%

Current views, speculations and suggestions

(good till close of business today). These are technical in nature only.

Dec Yen: neg with res at 108.98. Target for the day is 108.20

Dec Swiss: potential reversal day

Dec EC: potential reversal day

Dec Canadian: neg with res at 94.12

Dec BP: pos with support at 162.40

Dec ES: potential reversal day

Dec NQ: potential reversal day

Dec Mini Dow: pos with daily res at 1003.80

Dec Gold: neg with res at 1054

Dec Silver: pos with support at 16.50

Dec Copper: pos with support at 297

Dec Crude: potential reversal day

Jan Soybeans: pos with support at 9.75

Dec Wheat: potential reversal day

Dec Ten Year: neg with res at 117.15

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International Markets

Dec Bund: pos with support of 120.76

Dec Dax: pos with support at 5578

Dec NKD potential reversal day

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops. Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops. Some find it appropriate to look at the margin requirement and use that as a stop or if it’s a steep initial requirement, use half.

Charles Kespert

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